NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles

Kenneth D. West

NBER Working Paper No. 2067 (Also Reprint No. r0968)
Issued in November 1986
NBER Program(s):   EFG

The set of parameters needed to calculate the expected present discounted value of a stream of dividends can be estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When the test is applied to some annual U.S. stock market data, the data usually reject the null hypothesis of no bubbles. The test is of general interest since it may be applied to a wide class of linear rational expectations models.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w2067

Published: West, Kenneth D. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CII, No. 3, August 1987, pp. 553-580.

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