TY  - JOUR
AU  - Zax,Jeffrey S.
TI  - Trends and Deviations in Federal, State and Local Finance
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2063
PY  - 1986
Y2  - November 1986
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2063
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2063.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Jeffrey Zax
Dept. of Economics, UCB 256
University of Colorado
Boulder, CO 80309
E-Mail: jeffrey.zax@colorado.edu
AB  - This paper contains a descriptive analysis o+ real per capita annual revenues, expenditures, deficits, debt levels and capital expenditures for federal, state and local government finance in the United States for the rears 1952-83. It summarizes each time series as a deterministic trend and an ARIM characterization of the deviations around trend. These summaries demonstrate that civilian capital outlays are falling at an accelerating pace in ail levels of government; federal government expenditures and debt are expanding at an accelerating rate; local special districts are also growing quadratically; state governments have a continuing surplus of revenues over expenditures; and local governments depend upon intergovernmental revenues to maintain balance between revenues and expenditures while reducing debt. Stochastic persistence tends to increase at more disaggregate levels of government. Expenditures tend to have longer lags than do revenues.
ER  -