NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

No-Bubble Condition: Model-free Tests in Housing Markets

Stefano Giglio, Matteo Maggiori, Johannes Stroebel

NBER Working Paper No. 20154
Issued in May 2014
NBER Program(s):   AP   CF   EFG   IFM   ME

We test for the existence of housing bubbles associated with a failure of the transversality condition that requires the present value of payments occurring infinitely far in the future to be zero. The most prominent such bubble is the classic rational bubble. We study housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are finitematurity, pre-paid, and tradable ownership contracts with maturities often exceeding 700 years. Freeholds are infinite-maturity ownership contracts. The price difference between leaseholds with extremely-long maturities and freeholds reflects the present value of a claim to the freehold after leasehold expiry, and is thus a direct empirical measure of the transversality condition. We estimate this price difference, and find no evidence for failures of the transversality condition in housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, even during periods when a sizeable bubble was regularly thought to be present.

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This paper was revised on May 12, 2015

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w20154

Published: Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, 05. citation courtesy of

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