TY  - JOUR
AU  - Darby,Michael R.
AU  - Haltiwanger,John C.
AU  - Plant,Mark W.
TI  - The Ins and Outs of Unemployment:  The Ins Win
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 1997
PY  - 1986
Y2  - August 1986
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w1997
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w1997.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Michael R. Darby
John E. Anderson Graduate School of Management
University of California, Los Angeles
110 Westwood Plaza, Box 951481
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
Tel: 310/825-4180
Fax: 310/454-2748
E-Mail: michael.r.darby@anderson.ucla.edu

John C. Haltiwanger
Department of Economics
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742
Tel: 301/405-3504
Fax: 301/405-3542
E-Mail: haltiwan@econ.umd.edu
AB  - This paper develops a framework for analyzing unemployment in terms of
variations in the nt.imber and distribution of people becoming unemployed and in
individual probabilities of leaving unemployment. Contrary to the emphasis on
exit probabilities in the recent macroeconomics literature, we present
empirical evidence in support of the proposition that changes in the size and
distribution of the inflow Into unemployment are the primary determinant of
the unemployment rate. Instead of falling at the beginning of a recession,
the outflow rate rises (with a lag) in response to the increased inflows which
drive the recession. In contrast to normal unemployment, cyclical unemployment
is concentrated in groups with low normal exit probabilities; so the
observed procyclical variation in the average exit probability may largely he
explained by predictable distributional effects.
ER  -