NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Future of U.S. Economic Growth

John G. Fernald, Charles I. Jones

NBER Working Paper No. 19830
Issued in January 2014
NBER Program(s):   EFG

Modern growth theory suggests that more than 3/4 of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, U.S. economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.

download in pdf format
   (282 K)

email paper

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w19830

Published: John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 44-49, May. citation courtesy of

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Karabarbounis and Neiman w19136 The Global Decline of the Labor Share
Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Price w19837 Return of the Solow Paradox? IT, Productivity, and Employment in U.S. Manufacturing
Gordon w18315 Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds
Gordon w19895 The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections
Reinhart and Rogoff w19823 Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us