NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Issues in the Measurement and Interpretation of Effective Tax Rates

David F. Bradford, Charles Stuart

NBER Working Paper No. 1975 (Also Reprint No. r0803)*
Issued in December 1986
NBER Program(s):   PE

Marginal effective tax rates on investment that are derived from

the user cost of capital are nowadays widely used practically to assess

the effects of capital taxation. In this paper, we examine several

troublesome issues in the construction and use of marginal effective

tax rates and user costs of capital. Our connnents fall into two

classes. In the first are concerns about the adequacy of the current

generation of models of capital-market equilibrium, into which marginal

effective tax rates (user costs) are incorporated. In the second are

concerns about the appropriateness of the assumption, implicit and

nearly universal in marginal effective tax rate calculations, that

investors expect a given tax code to remain unchanged forever. We

show that effects of current changes in the law on expectations about

future changes may undo or even reverse the effects predicted by

traditionally calculated effective tax rates.

*Published: "Saving and Capitla Formation in the United States and Ohter Industrila Countries" 1987, Chapter 2 in Robert Lipsey and Irving Kravis's: Saving and Economics Growth: Is the U.S. Really Falling Behind?; New York, The conference Board. Bradford, David and Charles Stuart. "Issues in the Measurement and Interpretation of Effective Tax Rates." National Tax Journal, Vol. 39, No. 3, (September 1986), pp. 307-316.

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