NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Is the Japan Problem Over?

Paul Krugman

NBER Working Paper No. 1962
Issued in June 1986
NBER Program(s):   ITI   IFM

This paper argues that Japan's export growth is likely to slow

sharply over the next few years, perhaps to zero. For the past dozen

years Japan's export volume has gown much more rapidly than her domestic

production. This divergence was made necessary primarily by rising oil

prices, and secondarily by a shift into current account surplus. Now

both these factors are running in reverse. If Japan's export growth does

slow sharply, the mechanism will be a very strong yen -- probably above

140. The paper argues that it is Japan's export growth rather than

static trade structure that is the main cause o± trade tension, so these

developments should lead to a considerable reduction in trade friction.

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