NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery

Robert J. Gordon

NBER Working Paper No. 19390
Issued in August 2013

---- Acknowledgements -----

I am grateful to Ranjodh (R. J.) Singh for excellent research assistance, and to generations of previous research assistants who have maintained the continuity of the triangle model since 1982. Ian Dew-Becker is responsible for devising the treatment of changing productivity trends in our joint (2005) paper. A suggestion by James Stock in mid-July, 2013, rekindled my interest in updating the triangle model and led to the further exploration of the distinction between total and short-run unemployment (see Stock, 2011 and Astrayuda-Ball-Mazumdar, 2013). The exposition and critique of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve here is updated from Gordon (2007). A broader survey of the first five decades of the Phillips Curve is contained in Gordon (2011) and includes a deeper and more complete analysis of the contrast between the NKPC and triangle approaches. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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