Identifying Taylor Rules in Macro-Finance Models
Identification problems arise naturally in forward-looking models when agents observe more than economists. We illustrate the problem in several New Keynesian and macro-finance models in which the Taylor rule includes a shock unseen by economists. We show that identification of the rule's parameters requires restrictions on the form of the shock. A state-space treatment verifies that this works when we observe the state of the economy and when we infer it from observable macroeconomic variables or asset prices.
This paper was revised on April 10, 2015
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w19360
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