NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

David E. Bloom, Elizabeth T. Cafiero, Mark E. McGovern, Klaus Prettner, Anderson Stanciole, Jonathan Weiss, Samuel Bakkila, Larry Rosenberg

NBER Working Paper No. 19335
Issued in August 2013
NBER Program(s):   AG   HC   HE   LS

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO's EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China's higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO's Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

download in pdf format
   (719 K)

email paper

The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health provides summaries of publications like this.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health by email.

This paper is available as PDF (719 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w19335

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Wang and Wang w19263 Barriers to Health and the Poverty Trap
Agarwal and Whalley w19006 China and India: Reforms and the Response: How Differently have the Economies Behaved
Egan and Philipson w19280 International Health Economics
Freeman and Li w19254 How Does China's New Labor Contract Law Affect Floating Workers?
Rosenzweig and Udry w19334 Forecasting Profitability
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us