Non-Choice Evaluations Predict Behavioral Responses to Changes in Economic Conditions

B. Douglas Bernheim, Daniel Bjorkegren, Jeffrey Naecker, Antonio Rangel

NBER Working Paper No. 19269
Issued in August 2013
NBER Program(s):   PE

A central task in microeconomics is to predict choices in as-yet-unobserved situations (e.g., after some policy intervention). Standard approaches can prove problematic when sufficiently similar changes have not been observed or do not have observable exogenous causes. We explore an alternative approach that generates predictions based on relationships across decision problems between actual choice frequencies and non-choice subjective evaluations of the available options. In a laboratory experiment, we find that this method yields accurate estimates of price sensitivities for a collection of products under conditions that render standard methods either inapplicable or highly inaccurate.

You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from ($5) for electronic delivery.

Information about Free Papers

You should expect a free download if you are a subscriber, a corporate associate of the NBER, a journalist, an employee of the U.S. federal government with a ".GOV" domain name, or a resident of nearly any developing country or transition economy.

If you usually get free papers at work/university but do not at home, you can either connect to your work VPN or proxy (if any) or elect to have a link to the paper emailed to your work email address below. The email address must be connected to a subscribing college, university, or other subscribing institution. Gmail and other free email addresses will not have access.


Supplementary materials for this paper:

This paper was revised on November 10, 2015

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w19269

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Smith, Bernheim, Camerer, and Rangel w19270 Neural Activity Reveals Preferences Without Choices
Stiglitz and Yun w19317 Optimality and Equilibrium In a Competitive Insurance Market Under Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard
Ortoleva and Snowberg w19250 Overconfidence in Political Behavior
Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo, and Robinson w19746 Democracy, Redistribution and Inequality
List and Price w19289 Using Field Experiments in Environmental and Resource Economics
NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us