NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files

Nicole M. Aulerich, Scott H. Irwin, Philip Garcia

NBER Working Paper No. 19065
Issued in May 2013

---- Acknowledgements -----

Nicole M. Aulerich is an Associate at Cornerstone Research. Scott H. Irwin is the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Philip Garcia is the T.A. Hieronymus Distinguished Chair in Futures Markets at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. We gratefully acknowledge the helpful discussions and comments provided by Dwight Sanders and Aaron Smith. We also received helpful comments at the 2009 NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management, the 2012 NBER Conference on the Economics of Food Price Volatility and seminars at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and University of California-Berkeley. Jeff Harris, formerly Chief Economist of the CFTC, and Lin Hoffman of the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agricultural provided invaluable assistance in obtaining access to the CFTC large trader data files used in this study. This material is based upon work supported by Cooperative Agreement with the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture under Project No. 58-3000-8-0063. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.

---- Disclosure of Financial Relationships for Scott H. Irwin -----

I co-manage a family farm that transacts in grain markets.

I am a principal in a firm that provides grain yield forecasts to commodity market participants.

I have served as a compensated consultant for a financial firm that offers commodity index products to investors.

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