NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, Donghyun Park

NBER Working Paper No. 18963
Issued in April 2013
NBER Program(s):   IFM

We empirically assess the relative importance of various economic fundamentals in accounting for the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging markets during 2004-2012, which encompasses the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Inflation, state fragility, external debt, and commodity terms of trade volatility were positively associated, while trade openness and more favourable fiscal balance/GDP ratio were negatively associated with sovereign CDS spreads. Yet the relative importance of economic fundamentals in the pricing of sovereign risk varies over time. The key factors are trade openness and state fragility in the pre-crisis period, external debt/GDP ratio and inflation in the crisis period, and inflation and public debt/GDP ratio in the post- crisis period. Asian countries enjoy lower sovereign spreads than Latin American countries, and this gap widened during and after the crisis. Trade openness was the biggest factor behind Asia’s lower sovereign spreads before the crisis, and inflation during and after the crisis. The results imply that external factors were paramount in pricing sovereign risk prior to the crisis, but internal factors associated with the capacity to adjust to adverse shocks gained prominence during and after the crisis.

You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery.

Information about Free Papers

You should expect a free download if you are a subscriber, a corporate associate of the NBER, a journalist, an employee of the U.S. federal government with a ".GOV" domain name, or a resident of nearly any developing country or transition economy.

If you usually get free papers at work/university but do not at home, you can either connect to your work VPN or proxy (if any) or elect to have a link to the paper emailed to your work email address below. The email address must be connected to a subscribing college, university, or other subscribing institution. Gmail and other free email addresses will not have access.

E-mail:

Acknowledgments

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w18963

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Friedman w18960 The Simple Analytics of Monetary Policy: A Post-Crisis Approach
Bruno and Shin w18942 Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
Aizenman and Pasricha w18879 Why do emerging markets liberalize capital outflow controls? Fiscal versus net capital flow concerns
Reinhart and Rogoff w15639 Growth in a Time of Debt
Mendoza and Smith w19072 Financial Globalization, Financial Crises, and the External Portfolio Structure of Emerging Markets
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us