NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective

S. Boraǧan Aruoba, Francis X. Diebold, Jeremy Nalewaik, Frank Schorfheide, Dongho Song

NBER Working Paper No. 18954
Issued in April 2013
NBER Program(s):   AP   EFG

We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties – particularly as regards serial correlation – differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side measure and lead to substantially-revised views regarding the properties of GDP.

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