NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Employment Effects of State Hiring Credits During and After the Great Recession

David Neumark, Diego Grijalva

NBER Working Paper No. 18928
Issued in March 2013
NBER Program(s):   EFG   LS   PE

State and federal policymakers grappling with the aftermath of the Great Recession sought ways to spur job creation, in many cases adopting hiring credits to encourage employers to create new jobs. However, there is virtually no evidence on the effects of these kinds of counter-recessionary hiring credits – the only evidence coming from much earlier studies of the federal New Jobs Tax Credit in the 1970s. This paper provides evidence on the effects of state hiring credits on job growth. For many of the types of hiring credits we examine we do not find positive effects on job growth. However, some specific types of hiring credits – most notably including those targeting the unemployed, those that allow states to recapture credits when job creation goals are not met, and refundable hiring credits – appear to have succeeded in boosting job growth, more so during the Great Recession period or perhaps recessions generally. At the same time, some credits appear to generate hiring without increasing employment or to generate much more hiring than net employment growth, consistent with these credits leading to churning of employees that raises the costs of producing jobs via hiring credits.

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This paper was revised on June 22, 2015

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w18928

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