NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

History, Gravity and International Finance

Livia Chițu, Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud J. Mehl

NBER Working Paper No. 18697
Issued in January 2013
NBER Program(s):   DAE   IFM

We analyze patterns of bilateral financial investment using data on US investors' holdings of foreign bonds. We document a "history effect" in which the pattern of holdings seven decades ago continues to influence holdings today. 10 to 15% of the cross-country variation in US investors' foreign bond holdings is explained by holdings 70 years ago, plausibly reflecting fixed costs of market entry and exit together with endogenous learning. This effect is twice as large for bonds denominated in currencies other than the dollar, suggesting the existence of even higher fixed costs of initiating US foreign investment in such currencies. Our findings point to history and path dependence as key sources of financial market segmentation.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w18697

Published: Chiţu, Livia & Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "History, gravity and international finance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 104-129.

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