TY  - JOUR
AU  - Epstein,Andrew J.
AU  - Nicholson,Sean
AU  - Asch,David A.
TI  - The Production of and Market for New Physicians' Skill
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 18678
PY  - 2013
Y2  - January 2013
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18678
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18678.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Andrew Epstein
Division of General Internal Medicine
University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine
423 Guardian Dr
1001 Blockley Hall
Philadelphia, PA 19104
Tel: 215-746-7992
E-Mail: eandrew@mail.med.upenn.edu

Sean Nicholson
Professor
Department of Policy Analysis and Management
Cornell University
102 Martha Van Rensselaer Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853
Tel: 607/254-6498
Fax: 607/255-4071
E-Mail: sn243@cornell.edu

David A. Asch
Perelman School of Medicine
423 Guardian Drive
Philadelphia, PA 19104
E-Mail: asch@wharton.upenn.edu
AB  - Our understanding of the determinants of physician skill and the extent to which skill is valued in the marketplace is superficial.  Using a large, detailed panel of new obstetricians, we find that, even though physicians’ maternal complication rates improve steadily with years of practice, initial skill (as measured by performance in a physician’s first year of practice) explains most of the variation in physician performance over time.  At the same time, we find that the trajectories of new physicians’ delivery volume develop in a way partially consistent with Bayesian learning about physician quality.  In particular, as physicians gain experience, their volume becomes increasingly sensitive to the information in their accumulated prior.
ER  -