@techreport{NBERw18678,
 title = "The Production of and Market for New Physicians' Skill",
 author = "Andrew J. Epstein and Sean Nicholson and David A. Asch",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "18678",
 year = "2013",
 month = "January",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w18678",
 abstract = {Our understanding of the determinants of physician skill and the extent to which skill is valued in the marketplace is superficial.  Using a large, detailed panel of new obstetricians, we find that, even though physicians’ maternal complication rates improve steadily with years of practice, initial skill (as measured by performance in a physician’s first year of practice) explains most of the variation in physician performance over time.  At the same time, we find that the trajectories of new physicians’ delivery volume develop in a way partially consistent with Bayesian learning about physician quality.  In particular, as physicians gain experience, their volume becomes increasingly sensitive to the information in their accumulated prior.},
}