TY  - JOUR
AU  - Jaimovich,Nir
AU  - Siu,Henry E.
TI  - The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 18334
PY  - 2012
Y2  - August 2012
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18334
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18334.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Nir Jaimovich
Department of Economics
Duke University
213 Social Services Building
Durham, NC 27708
Tel: 919/660-1864
E-Mail: njaimo@gmail.com

Henry E. Siu
Department of Economics
University of British Columbia
1873 East Mall #997
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1
Canada
Tel: 604/822-2919
Fax: 604/822-5915
E-Mail: hankman@mail.ubc.ca
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 2013-02-01
AB  - Job polarization refers to the recent disappearance of employment in occupations in the middle of the skill distribution. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions, despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, job polarization is not a gradual process; essentially all of the job loss in middle-skill occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate are accounted for by jobless recoveries in the middle-skill occupations that are disappearing.
ER  -