NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes

Kristin J. Forbes, Francis E. Warnock

NBER Working Paper No. 18329
Issued in August 2012, Revised in March 2013
NBER Program(s):IFM

Forbes and Warnock (2012) identify episodes of extreme capital flow movements--surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment--and find that global factors, especially global risk, are significantly associated with extreme capital flow episodes whereas domestic macroeconomic characteristics and capital controls are less important. That analysis leads naturally to the question of which types of capital flows are driving the episodes and if debt- and equity-led episodes differ in material ways. After identifying debt- and equity-led episodes, we find that most episodes of extreme capital flow movements around the world are debt-led and the factors associated with debt-led episodes are similar to the factors behind episodes identified with aggregate capital flow data. In contrast, equity-led episodes are less frequent, more idiosyncratic, and differ in nature from other episodes.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w18329

Published: Forbes, K., and F. Warnock, 2014. Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes. in Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edited by Miguel Fuentes, Claudio Raddatz and Carmen M. Reinhart. Santiago: Central Bank of Chile

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