NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?

Takeo Hoshi, Takatoshi Ito

NBER Working Paper No. 18287
Issued in August 2012

---- Acknowledgements -----

The research started when both authors were visiting researchers at the Research Department of the IMF in the summer of 2011. We thank Olivier Blanchard and the research department for financial support and comments on earlier drafts as well as for hospitality during our stay. We also benefited from the seminar participants at the IMF, University of California at San Diego (IR/PS), Columbia University (Center for Japanese Economy and Business), Indiana University (Economics), the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Japan Economic Association annual meeting, and NBER Japan Project meeting. We are especially grateful to comments by Olivier Blanchard, John Cochrane, Takero Doi, Mitsuhiro Fukao, Robert Hodrick, Kenneth Kang, Anil Kashyap, Eric Leeper, Phillip Lipscy, Hugh Patrick, Eric Rasmussen, Kiichi Tokuoka, Masaya Sakuragawa and David Weinstein. We thank Cathleen Cimino for editorial assistance. Remaining errors are our own.

Hoshi is an author of the reports “Why Did Japan Stop Growing?” and “Policy Options for Japan’s Revival” that are commissioned by National Institute of Research Advancement (NIRA). Hoshi is also an independent director of UnionBanCal Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ. Ito has at various times in the last five years made compensated presentations at meetings hosted by various financial institutions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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