NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules

Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jesse Schreger

NBER Working Paper No. 18283
Issued in August 2012

---- Acknowledgements -----

The authors acknowledge support from the Smith Richardson Foundation, though views and findings are ours alone. We thank Raul Galicia Duran for capable research assistance, Roel Beetsma and Martin Muhleisen for sharing their data, and Max Otto and Snezhana Zlatinova for suggesting the use of EU data on national fiscal rules. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

---- Disclosure of Financial Relationships for Jeffrey A. Frankel -----

July 15, 2011

Ethics Disclosure - Jeffrey A. Frankel

It has recently become expected on ethics grounds that economists should disclose sources of professional income beyond that from their academic employer. Accordingly I offer the following information. (I include only compensation in excess of $1,000.)

In 2011: I received textbook royalties, co-organized a conference for the NBER, wrote op-eds or articles for Project Syndicate and the Milken Institute Review, consulted for a foreign bank and two financial advisory companies, and wrote papers and gave presentations for the Council on Foreign Relations and International Monetary Fund.

In 2010: I gave talks for the International Monetary Fund, three foreign non-profit educational/research institutions, a domestic bank, a foreign bank, and two consulting firms. I wrote and presented papers for the NBER, the World Bank, and a foreign central bank. I also received textbook royalties and served as an expert witness in a legal case where the ultimate clients were financial institutions.

In 2009: I gave talks for the International Monetary Fund, a foreign educational institution, a bank, and five consulting firms. I wrote and presented papers for the European Central Bank and the World Bank. I received textbook royalties.

In 2008: I gave talks for the International Monetary Fund, a foreign bank, three other financial institutions, two consulting firms and an educational institution. I wrote and presented papers for two think tanks, the World Bank, the NBER, and a foreign central bank. I also received textbook royalties and served as an expert witness in a legal case where the client was a financial investor.

See also: http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/EthicsDisclosure.doc

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