NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Who Suffers During Recessions?

Hilary W. Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, Jessamyn Schaller

NBER Working Paper No. 17951
Issued in March 2012
NBER Program(s):   CH   ED   LS   AP

In this paper we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across US states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences are largely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.

download in pdf format
   (546 K)

email paper

A non-technical summary of this paper is available in the July 2012 NBER digest.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Digest by email.

This paper is available as PDF (546 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w17951

Published: Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer. citation courtesy of

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Strebulaev and Yang w17946 The Mystery of Zero-Leverage Firms
Rothstein w17966 The Labor Market Four Years Into the Crisis: Assessing Structural Explanations
Romer and Romer w13264 The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks
Romer and Romer w17860 The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era
Jackson w17859 Do College-Prep Programs Improve Long-Term Outcomes?
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us