NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth

James D. Hamilton

NBER Working Paper No. 17759
Issued in January 2012
NBER Program(s):   EEE   EFG

This paper explores details behind the phenomenal increase in global crude oil production over the last century and a half and the implications if that trend should be reversed. I document that a key feature of the growth in production has been exploitation of new geographic areas rather than application of better technology to existing sources, and suggest that the end of that era could come soon. The economic dislocations that historically followed temporary oil supply disruptions are reviewed, and the possible implications of that experience for what the transition era could look like are explored.

download in pdf format
   (485 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (485 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w17759

Published: “Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth,” in Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, pp. 29-63, edited by Roger Fouqet, Cheltenham, United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2013.

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Hamilton w15002 Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08
Hamilton w7755 What is an Oil Shock?
Ferraro, Rogoff, and Rossi w17998 Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?
Hamilton w16790 Historical Oil Shocks
Hamilton w14492 Understanding Crude Oil Prices
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us