TY  - JOUR
AU  - Keller,Wolfgang
AU  - Li,Ben
AU  - Shiue,Carol H.
TI  - Shanghai’s Trade, China’s Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium War
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 17754
PY  - 2012
Y2  - January 2012
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17754
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17754.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Wolfgang Keller
Department of Economics
University of Colorado-Boulder
Boulder, CO 80309-0256
Tel: 303/735 5507
Fax: 303/492 8960
E-Mail: Wolfgang.Keller@colorado.edu

Ben Li
Department of Economics
Boston College
140 Commonwealth Avenue
Chestnut Hill MA 02467-3806 USA
Tel: 1-617-552-4517
E-Mail: benli36@gmail.com

Carol H. Shiue
Department of Economics
University of Colorado-Boulder
Boulder, CO 80309-0256
E-Mail: carol.shiue@colorado.edu
AB  - In this paper, we provide aggregate trends in China’s trade performance from the 1840s to the present.  Based on historical benchmarks, we argue that China’s recent gains are not exclusively due to the reforms since 1978.  Rather, foreign economic activity can be understood by developments that were set in motion in the 19th century.  We turn our focus to Shanghai, currently the world’s largest port.  Shanghai began direct trade relations with western nations starting in 1843.  By 1853, Shanghai already accounted for more than half of China’s foreign trade.  In tracking the levels and growth rates of the city’s net and gross imports and exports, foreign direct investment, and foreign residents over more than a century, we find that Shanghai’s level of bilateral trade today with the United States, the United Kingdom, or Japan, for example, are by no means high given Shanghai’s 19th century experience.  This paper argues that a regional approach that embeds national trading destinations within an international trading system provides a meaningful approach to understanding the history of China’s trade.
ER  -