NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia

Charles Yuji Horioka, Akiko Terada-Hagiwara

NBER Working Paper No. 17581
Issued in November 2011
NBER Program(s):   AG   IFM

In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in developing Asia during the 1966-2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy and that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development. We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia for the 2011-2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.

download in pdf format
   (217 K)

email paper

A non-technical summary of this paper is available in the April 2012 NBER digest.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Digest by email.

The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health provides summaries of publications like this.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health by email.

This paper is available as PDF (217 K) or via email.

This paper was revised on November 18, 2011

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w17581

Published: Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2012. "The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 128-137. citation courtesy of

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Collins Saving Behavior in Ten Developing Countries
Yang, Zhang, and Zhou w16771 Why Are Saving Rates so High in China?
Davis and von Wachter w17638 Recessions and the Cost of Job Loss
Perotti w17571 The "Austerity Myth": Gain Without Pain?
Horioka and Wan w12723 The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us