TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ashraf,Quamrul H.
AU  - Weil,David N.
AU  - Wilde,Joshua
TI  - The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 17377
PY  - 2011
Y2  - August 2011
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17377
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17377.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Quamrul Ashraf
Williams College
Department of Economics
24 Hopkins Hall Drive
Williamstown, MA 01267
Tel: (413) 597-3051
Fax: (413) 597-4045
E-Mail: Quamrul.H.Ashraf@williams.edu

David N. Weil
Department of Economics
Box B
Brown University
Providence, RI 02912
Tel: 401/863-1754
Fax: 401/863-1970
E-Mail: david_weil@brown.edu

Joshua Wilde
University of South Florida
Department of Economics
4202 E. Fowler Avenue, CMC 342
Tampa, FL 33620
E-Mail: jkwilde@usf.edu
AB  - We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.
ER  -