Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions
There is a fast growing literature that partially identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). To date, the methods that have been used are only justified from a Bayesian perspective. This paper develops methods of constructing error bands for impulse response functions of sign-restricted SVARs that are valid from a frequentist perspective. We also provide a comparison of frequentist and Bayesian error bands in the context of an empirical application - the former can be twice as wide as the latter.
A data appendix is available at http://www.nber.org/data-appendix/w17140
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w17140
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