NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Prices?

Soren T. Anderson, Ryan Kellogg, James M. Sallee

NBER Working Paper No. 16974
Issued in April 2011
NBER Program(s):   EEE   IO   PE

A full understanding of how gasoline prices affect consumer behavior frequently requires information on how consumers forecast future gasoline prices. We provide the first evidence on the nature of these forecasts by analyzing two decades of data on gasoline price expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We find that average consumer beliefs are typically indistinguishable from a no-change forecast, justifying an assumption commonly made in the literature on consumer valuation of energy efficiency. We also provide evidence on circumstances in which consumer forecasts are likely to deviate from no-change and on significant cross-consumer forecast heterogeneity.

download in pdf format
   (368 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (368 K) or via email.

This paper was revised on September 14, 2012

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w16974

Published: Anderson, Soren T. & Kellogg, Ryan & Sallee, James M., 2013. "What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 383-403. citation courtesy of

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Busse, Knittel, and Zettelmeyer w15590 Pain at the Pump: The Differential Effect of Gasoline Prices on New and Used Automobile Markets
Li, Linn, and Muehlegger w17891 Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior
Hughes, Knittel, and Sperling w12530 Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
Li, von Haefen, and Timmins w14450 How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?
Allcott and Wozny w18583 Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy, and the Energy Paradox
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us