NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile

Jeffrey A. Frankel

NBER Working Paper No. 16945
Issued in April 2011

---- Acknowledgements -----

This paper was presented at the 14th Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, Oct. 2010, Santiago. The author wishes to thank Jesse Schreger for exceptional research assistance. He would also like to thank Roel Beetsma, Carlos Alvarado, Mauricio Calani, Mauricio Cardenas, Luis Céspedes, Massimo Giuliodori, Martin Mühleisen, Claudia Bulos Ramirez, and Victoria Rodriguez for help acquiring data; Philippe Bacchetta, Roel Beetsma, Cynthia Balloch, Sebastian Bustos, Philippe Martin, Guillermo Perry, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, and Andrés Velasco for comments; and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard for support. The January 2011 version of this paper appears as Central Bank of Chile Working Paper 604 and Harvard CID Working Paper 216. The present version adds country fixed effects to the estimation, as did HKS Working Paper 11-012, and condenses results to save space. It is forthcoming in Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edited by Luis Felipe Céspedes and Jordi Galí, Series on Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies, Central Bank of Chile, Nov. 2011. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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