TY  - JOUR
AU  - Eichengreen,Barry
AU  - Park,Donghyun
AU  - Shin,Kwanho
TI  - When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 16919
PY  - 2011
Y2  - March 2011
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16919
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16919.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Barry Eichengreen
Department of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
549 Evans Hall 3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
Tel: 510/642-2772
Fax: 510/643-0926
E-Mail: eichengr@econ.Berkeley.edu

Donghyun Park
Economics and Research Department
Asian Development Bank
Manila, Philippines
Tel: (632) 632-5825/6385
Fax: (632) 636-2342
E-Mail: dpark@adb.org

Kwanho Shin
Korea University
Department of Economics
Seoul 136-701
Korea
Tel: 02-3290-2220
Fax: 02-3290-2719
E-Mail: khshin@korea.ac.kr
AB  - Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.
ER  -