@techreport{NBERw16919,
 title = "When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China",
 author = "Barry Eichengreen and Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "16919",
 year = "2011",
 month = "March",
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w16919",
 abstract = {Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.},
}