NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Why World Exports are so Susceptible to the Economic Crisis --The Prevailing "Export Overshooting" Phenomenon

Bih Jane Liu

NBER Working Paper No. 16837
Issued in February 2011
NBER Program(s):   ITI

This paper provides some evidence of the “export overshooting” phenomenon, i.e., the unusually large deviation of exports from their long-run level. We study the export trends of a sample of 37 countries including both OECD and non-OECD countries over the period of 1994-2009. We find that exports overshot their equilibrium value during economic crises and that the tendency to overshoot was a worldwide phenomenon. The bullwhip effect was the driving force behind such a phenomenon. Moreover, the extent of export overshooting was increasing in more recent crisis, which can be attributed to an increase in cross-border vertical specialization over time.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w16837

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