Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach
NBER Working Paper No. 16725
---- Acknowledgements -----
We are grateful to Lutz Kilian, Michael McCracken, Emanuel Moench, Barbara Rossi, and Mark Watson for helpful comments. Robert Kurtzman and Michael Levere provided outstanding research assistance. All errors and omissions are our own. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.