TY  - JOUR
AU  - Jones,Larry E.
AU  - Schoonbroodt,Alice
TI  - Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 16596
PY  - 2010
Y2  - December 2010
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16596
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16596.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Larry E. Jones
Department of Economics
University of Minnesota
4-101 Hanson Hall
1925 Fourth Street South
Minneapolis, MN 55455
Tel: 612/624-4553
Fax: 612/624-0209
E-Mail: lej@umn.edu

Alice Schoonbroodt
The University of Iowa
Tippie College of Business
Department of Economics
Pappajohn Business Builing
Iowa city
Iowa
E-Mail: alice-schoonbroodt@uiowa.edu
AB  - Economic demographers have long analyzed fertility cycles. This paper builds a foundation for these cycles in a model of fertility choice with dynastic altruism and aggregate shocks. It is shown that under reasonable parameter values, fertility is pro-cyclical and that, following a shock, fertility continues to cycle endogenously as subsequent cohorts enter retirement. Quantitatively, in the model, the Great Depression generates a large baby bust -- between 38% and 63% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1930s -- which is subsequently followed by a baby boom --  between 53% and 92% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1950s.
ER  -