TY  - JOUR
AU  - Hanushek,Eric A.
AU  - Woessmann,Ludger
TI  - How Much Do Educational Outcomes Matter in OECD Countries?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 16515
PY  - 2010
Y2  - November 2010
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16515
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16515.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Eric A. Hanushek
Hoover Institution
Stanford University
Stanford, CA  94305-6010
Tel: 650/736-0942
Fax: 650/723-1687
E-Mail: hanushek@stanford.edu

Ludger Woessmann
University of Munich
Ifo Institute for Economic Research and CESifo
Poschingerstr. 5
81679 Munich, Germany
E-Mail: woessmann@ifo.de
AB  - Existing growth research provides little explanation for the very large differences in long-run growth performance across OECD countries.  We show that cognitive skills can account for growth differences within the OECD, whereas a range of economic institutions and quantitative measures of tertiary education cannot.  Under the growth model estimates and plausible projection parameters, school improvements falling within currently observed performance levels yield very large gains.  The present value of OECD aggregate gains through 2090 could be as much as $275 trillion, or 13.8 percent of the discounted value of future GDP.   Extensive sensitivity analyses indicate that, while differences between model frameworks and alternative parameter choices make a difference, the economic impact of improved educational outcomes remains enormous. Interestingly, the quantitative difference between an endogenous and neoclassical model framework – with improved skills affecting the long-run growth rate versus just the steady-state income level – matters less than academic discussions suggest.  We close by discussing evidence on which education policy reforms may be able to bring about the simulated improvements in educational outcomes.
ER  -