Unemployment, Disequilibrium, and the Short Run Phillips Curve: An Econometric Approach

Richard E. Quandt, Harvey S. Rosen

NBER Working Paper No. 1648 (Also Reprint No. r0805)
Issued in June 1985
NBER Program(s):   LS

The paper specifies a disequilibrium model for the aggregate labor market consisting of demand and supply functions for labor, an adjustment equation for wages as well as for prices, a transactions equation and, finally, an equation that relates measured unemployment to vacancies and to excess demand. The model has a more sophisticated treatment of dynamics than earlier disequilibrium models, and uses measured unemployment as an endogenous variable. Two of the error terms are assumed to be serially correlated and the coefficients are estimated by maximum likelihood. The parameter estimates and the goodness-of-fit are satisfactory and the model's implications for the behavior of several important variables are sensible. Excess demand estimates computed in various ways are reasonable. The model is used to estimate the natural rate of unemployment as well as a short run Phillips curve. Finally, the stability properties ofthe model are analyzed by considering the eigenvalues of the system; they are found to have moduli less than one.

download in pdf format
   (396 K)

download in djvu format
   (281 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (396 K) or DjVu (281 K) (Download viewer) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w1648


  • Quandt, Richard E. and Harvey S. Rosen. "Unemployment, Disequilibrium and the Short Run Phillips Curve: An Econometric Approach." Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 1, (1986), pp. 235-253.(With Donald M. Waldman) Published as "Quality-Adjusted Cost Functions and ,
  • Policy Evaluation in the Nursing Home Industry", JPE, Vol. 100, no. 6(1992): 1232-1256.

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
DiNardo and Moore w7328 The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy
Gordon w3393 The Phillips Curve Now and Then
Ball and Moffitt w8421 Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve
Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright w13924 Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run
Gali w15758 The Return of the Wage Phillips Curve
NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us