Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models

Stefan Nagel, Kenneth J. Singleton

NBER Working Paper No. 16457
Issued in October 2010
NBER Program(s):   AP

We find that several recently proposed consumption-based models of stock returns, when evaluated using an optimal set of managed portfolios and the associated model-implied conditional moment restrictions, fail to capture key features of risk premiums in equity markets. To arrive at these conclusions, we construct an optimal GMM estimator for models in which the stochastic discount factor (SDF) is a conditionally affine function of a set of priced risk factors. Further, for the (often relevant) case where a researcher is proposing a generalized SDF relative to some null model, we show that there is an optimal choice of managed portfolios to use in testing the null against the proposed alternative.

Published: Stefan Nagel & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 873-909, 06.

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