NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers

Robert J. Gordon, Robert Krenn

NBER Working Paper No. 16380
Issued in September 2010

---- Acknowledgements -----

We are particularly grateful to Giorgio Primiceri for providing us with band-pass filtered output cycles and trends estimated from our new set of quarterly data 1913-54. We are also grateful to Tom Doan of Estima and Bob Arnold of the Congressional Budget Office for their help in answering questions regarding techniques and data, to Lucas Zalduendo for helping with the graphs, and to John Wang for finding some of the articles quoted in Part 3. The first author’s collection of original Fortune magazines provided an invaluable opportunity to revisit the U. S. economy of 1940-41. A final thanks is owed to Valerie Ramey for sharing her quarterly GDP data for 1939-46, which we use in robustness tests, and also for permission to use several of her Business Week quotes from the 1940-41 period. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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