NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

S. Boragan Aruoba, Francis X. Diebold, M. Ayhan Kose, Marco E. Terrones

NBER Working Paper No. 16264
Issued in August 2010
NBER Program(s):   AP   EFG   IFM

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as data are released and revisions become available. We apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, our measure of the global business cycle, the common G-7 real activity factor, explains a significant amount of cross-country variation and tracks the major global cyclical events of the past forty years. Second, the common G-7 factor and the idiosyncratic country factors play different roles at different times in shaping national economic activity. Finally, the degree of G-7 business cycle synchronization among country factors has changed over time.

download in pdf format
   (542 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (542 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w16264

Published:

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Auerbach and Gorodnichenko w16311 Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy
Stock and Watson w6528 Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series
Aruoba and Diebold w15657 Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions
Bordo and Helbling w16103 International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective
Crucini, Kose, and Otrok w14380 What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us