NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply

N. Gregory Mankiw, Ricardo Reis

NBER Working Paper No. 15773
Issued in February 2010
NBER Program(s):   EFG   ME

This paper surveys the research in the past decade on imperfect information models of aggregate supply and the Phillips curve. This new work has emphasized that information is dispersed and disseminates slowly across a population of agents who strategically interact in their use of information. We discuss the foundations on which models of aggregate supply rest, as well as the micro-foundations for two classes of imperfect information models: models with partial information, where agents observe economic conditions with noise, and models with delayed information, where they observe economic conditions with a lag. We derive the implications of these two classes of models for: the existence of a non-vertical aggregate supply, the persistence of the real effects of monetary policy, the difference between idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks, the dynamics of disagreement, and the role of transparency in policy. Finally, we present some of the topics on the research frontier in this area.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w15773

Published: Mankiw NG, Reis R. Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply. Handbook of Monetary Economics. 2011.

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