NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics

George J. Hall, Thomas J. Sargent

NBER Working Paper No. 15702
Issued in January 2010
NBER Program(s):   EFG   ME

This paper uses the sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of interest payments on the U.S. Federal government debt. We explain why our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from those reported by the U.S. government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt to GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w15702

Published: George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2011. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 192-214, July.

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