NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Modeling the Impact of Warming in Climate Change Economics

Robert S. Pindyck

NBER Working Paper No. 15692
Issued in January 2010
NBER Program(s):   EEE

Any economic analysis of climate change policy requires some model that describes the impact of warming on future GDP and consumption. Most integrated assessment models (IAMs) relate temperature to the level of real GDP and consumption, but there are theoretical and empirical reasons to expect temperature to affect the growth rate rather than level of GDP. Does this distinction matter in terms of implications for policy? And how does the answer depend on the nature and extent of uncertainty over future temperature change and its impact? I address these questions by estimating the fraction of consumption society would be willing to sacrifice to limit future increases in temperature, using probability distributions for temperature and impact inferred from studies assembled by the IPCC, and comparing estimates based on a direct versus growth rate impact of temperature on GDP.

download in pdf format
   (251 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (251 K) or via email.

Acknowledgments

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Published: Modeling the Impact of Warming in Climate Change Economics, Robert S. Pindyck, in The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present (2011), University of Chicago Press (p. 47 - 71)

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Dell, Jones, and Olken w14132 Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century
Goulder and Pizer w11923 The Economics of Climate Change
Jones and Olken w15711 Climate Shocks and Exports
Pindyck w16353 Fat Tails, Thin Tails, and Climate Change Policy
Pindyck w15259 Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us