TY  - JOUR
AU  - Aruoba,S. Boragan
AU  - Diebold,Francis X.
TI  - Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 15657
PY  - 2010
Y2  - January 2010
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15657
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15657.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
S. Boragan Aruoba
Department of Economics
University of Maryland
3105 Tydings Hall
College Park, MD 20742-7211
Tel: 301/405-3523
E-Mail: aruoba@econ.umd.edu

Francis X. Diebold
Department of Economics
University of Pennsylvania
3718 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA  19104-6297
Tel: 215/898-1507
Fax: 212/573-4217
E-Mail: fdiebold@sas.upenn.edu
AB  - We sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time and push it in new directions. In particular, we focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. As for the recent recession, we find that (1) it likely ended around July 2009; (2) its most extreme aspects concern a real activity decline that was unusually long but less unusually deep, and an inflation decline that was unusually deep but brief; and (3) its real activity and inflation interactions were strongly positive, consistent with an adverse demand shock.
ER  -