@techreport{NBERw15487, title = "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates", author = "Dimitri Vayanos and Jean-Luc Vila", institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research", type = "Working Paper", series = "Working Paper Series", number = "15487", year = "2009", month = "November", URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w15487", abstract = {We model the term structure of interest rates as resulting from the interaction between investor clienteles with preferences for specific maturities and risk-averse arbitrageurs. Because arbitrageurs are risk averse, shocks to clienteles' demand for bonds affect the term structure---and constitute an additional determinant of bond prices to current and expected future short rates. At the same time, because arbitrageurs render the term structure arbitrage-free, demand effects satisfy no-arbitrage restrictions and can be quite different from the underlying shocks. We show that the preferred-habitat view of the term structure generates a rich set of implications for bond risk premia, the effects of demand shocks and of shocks to short-rate expectations, the economic role of carry trades, and the transmission of monetary policy.}, }