TY  - JOUR
AU  - Jermann,Urban
AU  - Quadrini,Vincenzo
TI  - Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 15338
PY  - 2009
Y2  - September 2009
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15338
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15338.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Urban Jermann
Finance Department
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
3620 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA  19104
Tel: 215/898-4184
Fax: 215/898-6200
E-Mail: jermann@wharton.upenn.edu

Vincenzo Quadrini
Department of Finance and Business Economics
Marshall School of Business
University of Southern California
701 Exposition Boulevard
Los Angeles, CA 90089
Tel: 213/740-6521
Fax: 213/740-6650
E-Mail: quadrini@usc.edu
AB  - In this paper we document the cyclical properties of U.S. firms' financial flows. Equity payouts are procyclical and debt payouts are countercyclical. We develop a model with explicit roles for debt and equity financing and explore how the observed dynamics of real and financial variables are affected by `financial shocks', that is, shocks that affect the firms' capacity to borrow. Standard productivity shocks can only partially explain the movements in real and financial variables. The addition of financial shocks brings the model much closer to the data. The recent events in the financial sector show up clearly in our model as a tightening of firms' financing conditions causing the GDP decline in 2008-09. Our analysis also suggests that the downturns in 1990-91 and 2001 were strongly influenced by changes in credit conditions.
ER  -