Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes and Market Efficiency
Michael Smirlock, Jess B. Yawitz
NBER Working Paper No. 1530
The primary purpose of this paper is to reconcile the previous findings of discount rate endogeneity with the presence of discount rate announcement effects in securities markets. The crux of this reconciliation is the dictinction between "technicral" discount rate changes that are endogenous and "non-technical" changes which contain some informative policy implications. In essence, we attempt to separate expected discount rate changes from unexpected changes, or equivalently, the expected component of discount rate changes from the unexpected component. If markets are efficient, the former should have no announcement effects while the latter may be associated with an announcement effect. Accordingly, the focus of the empirical analysis is on the interaction between discount rate exogeneity, the specific monetary policy regime, and announcement effects. In addition, we examine whether the behaviorof these markets in the post-announcement period is consistent with the rapid price adjustment implied by market efficiency.
Published: Smirlock, Michael and Jess B. Yawitz. "Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changend Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, September 1985.