TY  - JOUR
AU  - Chen,Long
AU  - Zhang,Lu
TI  - The stock market and aggregate employment
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 15219
PY  - 2009
Y2  - August 2009
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15219
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15219.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Long Chen
212 Simon Hall
1 Olympian Way
John M. Olin Business School
Washington University in St. Louis
St. Louis MO 63130
Tel: 517-353-2955
Fax: 517-432-1080
E-Mail: lchen29@wustl.edu

Lu Zhang
Fisher College of Business
The Ohio State University
2100 Neil Avenue
Columbus, OH 43210
Tel: 585-267-6250
E-Mail: zhanglu@fisher.osu.edu
AB  - We study the interactions between the stock market and the labor market. When aggregate risk premiums are time-varying, predictive variables for market excess returns should forecast long-horizon growth in the marginal benefit of hiring and thereby long-horizon aggregate employment growth. Consistent with this logic, we document that long-horizon payroll growth and  change in unemployment rate are predictable with risk premium proxies. Lagged payroll growth and change in unemployment rate also forecast stock market excess returns.
ER  -