NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The stock market and aggregate employment

Long Chen, Lu Zhang

NBER Working Paper No. 15219
Issued in August 2009
NBER Program(s):   AP   EFG   LS

We study the interactions between the stock market and the labor market. When aggregate risk premiums are time-varying, predictive variables for market excess returns should forecast long-horizon growth in the marginal benefit of hiring and thereby long-horizon aggregate employment growth. Consistent with this logic, we document that long-horizon payroll growth and change in unemployment rate are predictable with risk premium proxies. Lagged payroll growth and change in unemployment rate also forecast stock market excess returns.

download in pdf format
   (243 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (243 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w15219

Published: Do time-varying risk premiums explain labor market performance? (with Chen), 2011, Journal of Financial Economics 99 (2), 385-399.

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Boyd, Jagannathan, and Hu w8092 The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News is Usually Good for Stocks
Manuelli w8022 Technological Change, the Labor Market and the Stock Market
Barro and Ursua w14760 Stock-Market Crashes and Depressions
Bordo, Dueker, and Wheelock w14019 Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions
McQueen and Roley w3520 Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us