TY  - JOUR
AU  - Carneiro,Pedro
AU  - Heckman,James J.
AU  - Vytlacil,Edward J.
TI  - Evaluating Marginal Policy Changes and the Average Effect of Treatment for Individuals at the Margin
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 15211
PY  - 2009
Y2  - August 2009
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15211
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15211.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Pedro Carneiro
Department of Economics
University College
Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom
E-Mail: p.carneiro@ucl.ac.uk

James J. Heckman
Department of Economics
The University of Chicago
1126 E. 59th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
Tel: 773/702-0634
Fax: 773/702-8490
E-Mail: jjh@uchicago.edu

Edward J. Vytlacil
Department of Economics
Yale University
Box 208281
New Haven, CT 06520-8281
Tel: 203/432-3244
Fax: 203/432-6167
E-Mail: edward.vytlacil@yale.edu
AB  - This paper develops methods for evaluating marginal policy changes. We characterize how the effects of marginal policy changes depend on the direction of the policy change, and show that marginal policy effects are fundamentally easier to identify and to estimate than conventional treatment parameters. We develop the connection between marginal policy effects and the average effect of treatment for persons on the margin of indifference between participation in treatment and nonparticipation, and use this connection to analyze both parameters. We apply our analysis to estimate the effect of marginal changes in tuition on the return to going to college.
ER  -